{"rule":"Supported only if the within-month permutation p < 0.01, the spread has the same sign before and from 2021, and |spread| >= 1.0 point.","years":[{"fall":26,"rise":17,"year":"2014","meanFall":-0.17036708215785368,"meanRise":-0.16695652921491672},{"fall":26,"rise":29,"year":"2015","meanFall":-0.007633069818967075,"meanRise":-0.0725838780733869},{"fall":26,"rise":28,"year":"2016","meanFall":-0.014670377379400384,"meanRise":0.053977778351470274},{"fall":43,"rise":34,"year":"2017","meanFall":0.0334150543065441,"meanRise":-0.008142951136017066},{"fall":53,"rise":30,"year":"2018","meanFall":-0.0461364161583434,"meanRise":-0.023577885971270036},{"fall":58,"rise":37,"year":"2019","meanFall":-0.07329517489634178,"meanRise":-0.036734293930672464},{"fall":63,"rise":54,"year":"2020","meanFall":0.05733798634819081,"meanRise":0.05027668151428339},{"fall":77,"rise":78,"year":"2021","meanFall":-0.08614777545536952,"meanRise":-0.12649187774068502},{"fall":156,"rise":99,"year":"2022","meanFall":-0.11988350099857581,"meanRise":-0.06836787486763955},{"fall":151,"rise":101,"year":"2023","meanFall":-0.09148479283176619,"meanRise":-0.1335520767096607},{"fall":141,"rise":133,"year":"2024","meanFall":-0.032412640186823126,"meanRise":-0.10438090545457676},{"fall":168,"rise":161,"year":"2025","meanFall":-0.07480105364180377,"meanRise":-0.07853370605990148},{"fall":196,"rise":159,"year":"2026","meanFall":-0.13176088414965204,"meanRise":-0.14603311227666213}],"sample":{"counts":{"fall":1307,"rise":1072,"steady":2795,"unknown":1401},"priced":6401,"filings":6575,"symbols":1321,"lastFiled":"2026-10-13","firstFiled":"2014-01-03","pennyExcluded":338,"symbolsPriced":1290},"caveats":["Survivorship: prices come from current tickers, so companies that were delisted or acquired since are missing; this flatters average returns but affects both groups.","Only companies that disclose at least one 10% customer are in the sample, so the level test compares concentrated companies with less concentrated ones, not with unconcentrated ones.","Market-adjusted returns do not remove size, industry or momentum effects; the IWM row shows the result against small caps.","Gross of trading costs; many filers are small and illiquid.","Returns are log returns, which sit below simple returns for volatile stocks (a 70% annual volatility costs about 25 points a year). Both groups carry this, so the spread compares like with like, but the absolute averages look worse than an investor's experience."],"largest":[{"c0":1,"c1":0,"arM3":-0.1771181288107256,"delta":-1,"filed":"2026-03-30","ticker":"RZLV","accession":"0001193125-26-132456"},{"c0":1,"c1":0.1,"arM3":0.6398183963515088,"delta":-0.9,"filed":"2024-03-07","ticker":"LPCN","accession":"0001493152-24-009127"},{"c0":0.8,"c1":0,"arM3":-0.17104337897239616,"delta":-0.8,"filed":"2026-04-01","ticker":"AMZE","accession":"0001493152-26-014431"},{"c0":0.77,"c1":0,"arM3":-0.17245215637728467,"delta":-0.77,"filed":"2024-04-02","ticker":"CAL","accession":"0000014707-24-000012"},{"c0":0.76,"c1":0,"arM3":-0.26091180824456245,"delta":-0.76,"filed":"2024-04-26","ticker":"EBON","accession":"0001213900-24-036625"},{"c0":0.73,"c1":0,"arM3":-0.6165533431532658,"delta":-0.73,"filed":"2024-10-15","ticker":"DRCT","accession":"0001558370-24-013317"},{"c0":0.28,"c1":1,"arM3":-0.036756477828776626,"delta":0.72,"filed":"2024-06-28","ticker":"JRSH","accession":"0001213900-24-057324"},{"c0":0.32,"c1":1,"arM3":-1.2612060041406088,"delta":0.6799999999999999,"filed":"2025-03-26","ticker":"QSJC","accession":"0001683168-25-001892"},{"c0":0.99,"c1":0.34,"arM3":-0.21028430581613725,"delta":-0.6499999999999999,"filed":"2024-03-29","ticker":"ELAB","accession":"0001213900-24-027576"},{"c0":0.35000000000000003,"c1":1,"arM3":0.035636330931503674,"delta":0.6499999999999999,"filed":"2025-03-24","ticker":"INLX","accession":"0001641172-25-000274"},{"c0":0.6,"c1":0,"arM3":0.047596423967989514,"delta":-0.6,"filed":"2025-03-05","ticker":"STEM","accession":"0001758766-25-000005"},{"c0":0.37,"c1":0.9500000000000001,"arM3":-1.1918591736647361,"delta":0.5800000000000001,"filed":"2026-07-14","ticker":"OFAL","accession":"0001493152-26-033093"}],"primary":{"p":0.4357128574285143,"nA":960,"nB":1184,"ciHi":0.01602125966530232,"ciLo":-0.0443664459112885,"hitA":0.390625,"hitB":0.41385135135135137,"meanA":-0.08638504003625462,"meanB":-0.07497292621913779,"months":144,"spread":-0.011412113817116834,"window":[2,61],"sameSign":false,"benchmark":"SPY","firstHalf":{"p":0.7706458708258348,"nA":229,"nB":295,"ciHi":0.0448715264573226,"ciLo":-0.026643073072540883,"hitA":0.4759825327510917,"hitB":0.488135593220339,"meanA":-0.01336349632474626,"meanB":-0.022564893181438526,"months":77,"spread":0.009201396856692266},"secondHalf":{"p":0.3223355328934213,"nA":731,"nB":889,"ciHi":0.01672325802247611,"ciLo":-0.05869527374955842,"hitA":0.36388508891928867,"hitB":0.3892013498312711,"meanA":-0.10926046207447002,"meanB":-0.09236366834075911,"months":67,"spread":-0.016896793733710905}},"verdict":"not_supported","version":"cc-v1.1","question":"When an annual report shows a company's dependence on its largest customers rose or fell, does the stock drift afterwards?","changelog":[{"date":"2026-10-18","note":"First run. Implementation error: groups of customers in the filings (\"top ten customers\", \"two customers\") were added to single-customer shares, which pushed 854 of 6,575 filings to 100%. Result: spread −0.19 points, p 0.88, no signal.","version":"cc-v1"},{"date":"2026-10-18","note":"Same design and rule. Customer groups excluded, and a year that a filing reports only as groups counts as unknown instead of zero (an intermediate run without that second fix gave −1.13 points, p 0.42). This is the published result.","version":"cc-v1.1"}],"secondary":{"year1":{"p":0.8076384723055389,"nA":783,"nB":976,"ciHi":0.05212559583772583,"ciLo":-0.06806394652025356,"hitA":0.35759897828863346,"hitB":0.36577868852459017,"meanA":-0.2670060077142401,"meanB":-0.25762899140230816,"months":135,"spread":-0.00937701631193194},"month1":{"p":0.750249950009998,"nA":975,"nB":1195,"ciHi":0.011870616715012825,"ciLo":-0.018101947040531568,"hitA":0.4369230769230769,"hitB":0.401673640167364,"meanA":-0.037001709546867524,"meanB":-0.034430490334510254,"months":146,"spread":-0.0025712192123572702},"filingDay":{"p":0.852629474105179,"nA":979,"nB":1198,"ciHi":0.007904414813512737,"ciLo":-0.009959298385592,"hitA":0.4698672114402451,"hitB":0.48497495826377296,"meanA":-0.009069022233093901,"meanB":-0.008300776868366022,"months":147,"spread":-0.0007682453647278788},"primaryVsIwm":{"p":0.36112777444511096,"nA":960,"nB":1184,"ciHi":0.014289533147364558,"ciLo":-0.04607148578633822,"hitA":0.4197916666666667,"hitB":0.45861486486486486,"meanA":-0.0683321397952024,"meanB":-0.05525986997994828,"months":144,"spread":-0.013072269815254126},"levelTopVsBottom":{"p":0.0027994401119776045,"nA":1458,"nB":1458,"ciHi":-0.02085026742899498,"ciLo":-0.15402328174385885,"hitA":0.35939643347050754,"hitB":0.37037037037037035,"meanA":-0.2725495071017362,"meanB":-0.18880838839648678,"months":140,"spread":-0.08374111870524942}},"startedAt":"2026-10-18T16:22:48.239Z","generatedAt":"2026-10-18T16:23:59.715Z","registeredAt":"2026-10-18"}